Non-Chalk, Sleeper Players You Could Plug-In For Large DFS Tournaments For Week 14
I will list 30ish players that I am using as core players to make up my rosters for DFS games.
I’ll list twenty or so chalk players, and ten players who I think would make good, non-chalk tournament plays.
*Disclaimer-These articles sometimes take up to 24 hours to publish. Please check the official starting statuses via social media, sports websites, or pregame shows for the players you are rostering. Sit/starts, change at a moments notice due to injuries, etc. and thus can substantially affect/wreck your roster.*
The picks below are specifically for DFS large tournament rosters, Sunday Main Slates, but can be inserted into cash lineups as well. They are in no particular order of preference.
The chalk QBs are actually only one QB this week…Deshaun Watson. The rest of the projected ownership is very spread out, with no other QB projected at over 10% ownership. So we get to pick our QBs, you could go stud and outpace the field because ownership will be so spread out with everyone trying to outsmart themselves.
DFS Tournament Plays:
Lamar Jackson: Lamar Jackson, at under 10% ownership, is almost an automatic. Buffalo is tough matchups for most QBs, but most QBs don’t run as much as Lamar. Buffalo is weak vs. the run, so if Jackson doesn’t beat them in the air, he’ll be owning them on the ground.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has been kicking himself in the butt, since the loss to the 49ers. He’s motivated and ready to put the Packers on his back to make a playoff run. He’s also locked onto super stud WR, Davante Adams, again, and with the very porous Redskins defense who is focusing on stopping the run, Rodgers could pinball up the stats.
Patrick Mahomes: The Patriots have had their issues with mobile QBs (losses to the Texans/Watson and Ravens/Lamar Jackson), and while the Patriots are extremely tough, at home, the Chiefs have the firepower to do some damage. A Mahomes/Hill stack would be expensive, but with projected ownership of 7% for Mahomes and 4% for Hill, that’s an award-winning combo. Throw-in Travis Kelce and this could be the trio that wins you some cash, as you’re going against expectations (NE D and Patriots home winning streak). The over/under with this game is 49; the Chiefs RBs are banged up, so the Chiefs points are most likely going to are come through the air.
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) December 6, 2019
The stud RBs are converging into one super-chalk group. CMAC, Kamara, Cook, Aaron Jones, Fournette and Chubb are the core. If you’re playing in a yearly dynasty or redraft league, you’d be insane to bench one of those guys, but in DFS, you’re looking for under-owned guys who could do some damage that you can add to these stud RBs, in your lineup. Here are a few that I think have a chance to jump off the stat page.
DFS Tournament Plays:
James White: White exploded versus the Texans when the Patriots finally realized that the Texas D couldn’t contain him while he was picking up 6+yards/carry. The Patriots RBs have been my favorite target since July, for this stretch of games that they have. This week, they face the Chiefs, who are one of THE worst teams versus the run. Michel has been underwhelming, leaving White to go “Hulk Smash” mode on the Chiefs. If White starts hot, the Patriots won’t hesitate to keep exploiting that matchup and feeding White.
Bilal Powell: Jets RB Le’Veon Bell has been ruled out due to illness. The Jets are playing the Dolphins who have been notoriously bad versus the run for multiple seasons. Powell may turn into chalk, as the games get closer, but right now he’s projected at 1% ownership. He’ll also be dirt cheap, pretty much on any/every sight, so if he happens to miss somehow, he’s not going to hurt you.
Derrius Guice: I’ve been waiting for Guice to get healthy and start smashing through NFL defenses. Here’s an article I did in February about Guice being a breakout RB this year. We had to wait over a year and a half, but we finally see the fantasy pot-of-gold that Guice is. The Packer’s defense has been vulnerable versus the run, and the Redskins like to play a run-heavy style of offense. Guice has only been getting ten carries, the last couple games so there is a risk there (he did get 129 yards, and 2 TDs with those 10 carries) but at 2% owned he’s worth the chance of having a stud game, at non-stud ownership and prices.
If we’re going strictly on the concept that any ownership over 10% is chalk, then there are 13 (!) chalk WRs. That’s a lot of players to fade, so we’ll pick a couple of players that I think could pop, that is on the lower end (in ownership) of those 13 and one that is just below that pack, as well.
DFS Tournament Plays:
Chris Godwin: Kellen Moore is out at CB for the Colts, which waters down the Colts secondary enough for Godwin to have a chance at a huge game. Godwin is projected at just over 10% ownership and could be in shootout situation versus the Colts,
Stefan Diggs: In Oct, Diggs torched the Lions for 7 catches and 143 yards. With Adam Thielen out, and the Lions probably looking to slow Dalvin Cook down, Diggs should have another huge game. He’s at 7% projected ownership, and that’s because he’s one of the more expensive WRs on this slate. Love his upside.
Zach Pascal: Pascal’s one to pair with Jacoby Brissett since Hilton looks to be out this game, as the Colts are playing the TB defense who give up the most points to WR1s and 2nd most points to WR2s. Parris Campbell could also have a good day as he’ll be lining up in that #2 spot.
Travis Kelce is once again the king of the chalk this week. At 17% projected ownership, he might be one of the highest held players on the slate. Darren Waller and George Kittle follow Kelce as chalk, and
DFS Tournament Plays:
Jack Doyle: The Colts are playing Tampa Bay, a team with a defense that is one of the worst in the NFL defending the pass. The Colts are also playing T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron, this leaves a ton of opportunities with limited receiving options for Brissett. Last week, Doyle had 11 targets, and those target #s might repeat this week.
Vance McDonald: Vance McDonald gets the Arizona Defense, a team that an insane amount of points to TEs, weekly. At a projected 3% ownership, it seems like a no-brainer, even if the Steelers trot out their 3rd string QB (Hodges). For more info on how terrible the Arizona D has been against TEs, check out fellow DFD writer, Jordan Reilley, newest article here.
Bonus–Mark Andrews: Andrews doesn’t have the easiest matchup versus the Bills, but Andrews has a 10+pt game 66% of the time. With the Bills, D worried about which direction Lamar Jackson might run to. Next, Andrew should be able to attack a defense that gave a ton of points to Jason Witten in their last game.
Hopefully, this helps with some of your DFS decisions this week. Good luck!
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