Chris Godwin, Hype or Hoax

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Chris Godwin the 2017 3rd round pick out of Penn State is garnering quite the noise and hype this offseason. Expectations are so high in fact, he is arguably the number one breakout candidate in the entire NFL this season. The talented Tampa Bay Buccaneer flashed in 2018 and the expectation is that, under Bruce Arians, he takes his game to the next level. Will he deliver on the hype or is he a hoax?

 

Athletic Profile

Godwin projected well at the 2017 NFL combine. Standing 6 ft 1 inches and 209 pounds, Godwin possessed the perfect body and frame to make an impact in the NFL. An impressive 4.42 s 40-yard dash, along with 9 1/8 inch hand size coupled with 19 reps on the bench press helped his draft stock to where he was eventually selected with the 84th pick in 2017.

Story To Date

In his rookie campaign, Godwin played in all 16 matches, starting in 2 of those. Godwin finished the season with 34 receptions, 525 yards and 1 touchdown. He made an impressive leap forward in his sophomore season, starting 5 games and finishing with an impressive stat line of 59 receptions, 842 yards, and a very endearing 7 touchdowns. Godwin’s trajectory has been steep. If he continues this path, you can see why so many people are all aboard the Godwin hype train.

 

Bruce Arians & 100 Catches

When news broke of Bruce Arians predicting ‘100 catches’ for Godwin, twitter was in overdrive. This was justification for all the people hyping up Godwin. With the unique ability to be effective no matter where he lines up on the offense, Godwin looks to be heavily utilized in an Arians-ran-offense. He has a talent for getting separation and is great in contested catch situations.

Make what you want with last year’s stats under a different coaching regime and offensive system. Let’s instead dive deeper into Bruce Arians.

2013 signaled his first season with the Arizona Cardinals, he had two wide receivers with over 100 targets. Larry Fitzgerald had 134 and Michael Floyd had 112. I must point out however only one of the pair had 1,00 yards. Floyd managed 1,041 yards while Fitzgerald got close with 954. Not quite two 1,000 yard receivers.

In 2015, however Bruce Arians did have two 1,000 yard receivers. Fitzgerald had 1,215 yards and John Brown, now on the Buffalo Bills had 1,003. This is proof that Chris Godwin’s 1,000 yards are attainable alongside Mike Evans.

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1,000 yards, Mike Evans And The Competition

When Mike Evans lines up alongside you though, you are the clear cut second receiver. Does this matter in a Bruce Arians offense? Can Godwin eclipse 1,000 yards?

I believe Godwin will eclipse 1,000 yards. He managed 842 last season whilst only starting in 5 games. He was targeted 95 times with not only Evans, but Desean Jackson and Adam Humphries. Jackson is now back on the Philadelphia Eagles and Humphries now must deal with Marcus Mariota’s inaccuracy on the Titans. 158 extra yards seems easy for Godwin factoring in the Arians arrival alongside these two departures.

Evans is a target hog (he had 138 last season) but there is still enough to go around even with talented tight ends OJ Howard and Cameron Brate being factored in.

 

ADP

Chris Godwin has a current ranking of 42 on fantasy pros half ppr leagues on fantasy pros. This makes him the 19th ranked WR, ahead of the likes of Cooper Kupp (20th), Tyler Lockett (21st) and Tyler Boyd (24th). With the hype Godwin is garnering, expectations are clearly high. Last season he finished WR 24 in half ppr leagues. As mentioned, he managed so impressively by only starting in 5 games. Scoring 155.7 points at an average of 9.7 points per game.

The 19th highest scoring WR last seasons was Calvin Riley. He finished with 174.8 fantasy points, scoring 10.9 points per game.

If Godwin keeps up his efficiency in the red zone, I believe he will easily surpass Calvin Ridley’s output last season.

 

 

Final Thoughts

I am still skeptical given the number of talented receivers on the Buccaneer’s rosters, however, I do believe Godwin can get to the 1,000-yard mark. Bruce Arians has proven his offense is capable of handling two 1,000 yard receivers. Past performances are the best indication of future performance people often say. Given Godwin’s slot and outside capabilities, his size, and measurements, I believe that, while the hype train may be going a little too fast, he is certainly no hoax.


Thank you for reading guys I hope you enjoyed it. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @dynastyboyd or on Instagram @boydkillingworth.