For all the truthers still out there, it’s time to sell Allen Robinson

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Allen Robinson has finished as high as wide receiver 4 in his sophomore season. Since then he has finished as WR 28, missed all but 3 snaps in a season due to injury and joined a new club to finish WR 41.


I was once an Allen Robinson truther, just like all those who believe the world is flat.  I am here to inform you to let go, just like the world isn’t flat, Allen Robinson 2015 isn’t coming back!

Allen Robinson – The tale

Allen Robinson, the former second round pick from Penn State, is polarizing among the dynasty community to say the least. While there are many truthers that remind people of his stellar 2015 season (the naysayers mention garbage time frequently), the larger sample size of a 5 year career paints Robinson FIRMLY out of the WR 1 and WR 2 conversation.

But there it is, I hear the truthers say what about his 2015 season? Oh, you mean that one year, 4 seasons ago? The one where Robinson had 365 yards and 5 touchdowns in the 4th quarter alone? They lost 5 games by over 10 points or more. Can someone say garbage time? I used to love Robinson, 2015 was special yes. 80 receptions, a whopping 1,400 yards and league leading 14 touchdowns. Impressive to say the least.

Since his breakout 2015 season, he has been nothing short of disappointing. 2016 was a relatively mediocre season with regressions in all the major stats, 73 receptions, 883 yards and 6 touchdowns. This was followed by missing all but 3 snaps due to a season ending ACL injury in 2017. After entering free agency and signing a handsome 3 year $42 million dollar contract with the Chicago Bears, he had another mediocre season. After 3 consecutive poor seasons, one of which can be excused for injury, I am firmly of the belief that 2015 was the outlier and I am jumping off the bandwagon. I do still rate the talent, but Robinson has simply been dealt a bad hand despite his capabilities.

The Truthers

I do agree with some of what the truthers say. There are still many positives to Allen Robinson.

  • He is still just 25 years of age
  • Still recovering from his ACL injury
  • Will be more familiar with the Bears playbook in his second season
  • 23% target share last season
  • Playoff game against the Eagles
  • His career has been spent with mediocre quarterbacks

Yes, you are right, but 1 good season in 5 years is hard to argue with. Surpassing 1,000 yards once in a 5 year career? Not for me thank you very much. This is without mentioning that Trubisky is  a lower mid-tier quarterback at best, will still be throwing him the ball for two more seasons.

 

Bears debut season

Robinson finished the season 45th in the league for overall targets (94). Despite being signed as a number 1 WR as his contract indicates, he had one more target than his Bears teammate Taylor Gabriel (93). 55 receptions, 754 yards and 4 touchdowns was hardly value for money for the Bears brass. Delving deeper into the numbers of his debut Bears seasons doesn’t paint  flattering picture. Catching only 55 of those 94 targets giving Robinson a catch rate of 58.5%, a lowly 158th in the league.

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2019 Outlook

The Chicago Bears have, if not the best, one of the best defenses in all of the NFL. This hinders Robinson’s outlook further as they will rarely be playing from behind and having shootouts. Signing Mike Davis, drafting David Montgomery in the second round combined with the play making ability and continual development of Tarik Cohen, doesn’t bode well for Robinson. This is without mentioning Anthony Miller’s sophomore season where he is bound to further develop and see more targets. Miller already finished with more touchdowns (7) than Robinson (4) in his rookie year despite seeing significantly fewer targets (54). Robinson finished ranked as WR 41 in 2018. I believe Robinson will again be around this territory. A low end WR 3 at best but most likely a WR 4. A far cry from 2015.

Robinson is currently being drafted as WR 29 in redraft leagues, too high for me. Fantasy Pros has Robinson as WR 23 in its updated dynasty rankings. Ahead of names such as N’Keal Harry (26), Mike Williams (27) and Tyler Lockett (33) whom I would much prefer in my dynasty rosters, as I’m sure most of you would agree. Truthers, are you trying to tell me that you wouldn’t sell Robinson for the 2019 rookie draft pick 1.02 to get some N’Keal stocks? Please.

Final Words

The silky route running, the speed, the ability to out-muscle corners and a terrific ability to high point the ball. We saw it all in 2015, will Robinson’s skill finally win out again this season? Or is it finally time to sell? Admittedly we did see glimpses last year with Trubisky force feeding Robinson the ball in the Bears final game of the season, their play off loss to the Eagles. Finishing with an encouraging stat line of 10 receptions, 141 yards and a TD. I don’t expect this one-off to be the norm at all. I am not expecting a sustained giant leap forward from Trubisky anytime soon. This is a big part of the reason why I will not be drafting Allen Robinson in redraft leagues and is a sell for me in dynasty. Just like how the earth isn’t flat, ain’t that the truth.

 

Thanks for reading guys, I hope you enjoyed it. You can find more of my articles here. Don’t forget to follow me on twitter @dynastyboyd and on instagram @boydkillingworth