Buy/Sell/Hold OTA’s Edition

Buy/Sell/Hold OTA’s Edition

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A big part of winning in fantasy football is trading for or trading away the right players at the right time and knowing when to wait and see. Lets take a look at some good buy, sell, hold candidates for the upcoming season to try and win some championships.


The awesome thing about fantasy football dynasty leagues is that it is year round. As Bill Belichick says, “No days off!” There is nothing better than when big trade news drops and a player on your team’s value goes up like a rocket. It is often tough to decide when to trade a player and when to keep a player on your fantasy squad. I will be coming out with a buy/sell/hold article every month leading up to the season. It will be based around the trendy players that month. This month, I will breakdown players affected most from OTA’s so far.

The Art of Juggling Your Roster

Buying low and selling high is the ultimate goal in fantasy football, especially in dynasty. Of course, there are time where you may buy high and sell low. The best thing to do, when approached with a trade, is to look at it from multiple angles. The aspects taken into consideration are the players’ potential ceiling and floor, surrounding teammates and coaches, and injury history. In each of these monthly articles I will take all formats into account when applicable.

Relationships Are Key

It’s always good to maintain good relationships with your league mates. The quickest way to shut down trade negotiations is to continuously offer one sided trades. Sometimes it just takes one terrible trade offer to make somebody not want to do business with you. I always try to put myself in my trade partners shoes before sending my trade. I always think, “would I accept this trade.” And if is clearly a no I try to spice it up a little bit before sending it.

Buy

Dante Pettis

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Pettis has been one of my big buy targets all off-season. Even before the NFL Draft, where we saw the 49ers draft two WRs early in the draft. Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd are both looking to make instant impacts on this offense. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan came out and said that they are looking to move Jalen Hurd to TE, but that doesn’t change the fact that the 49ers brought in new targets for Jimmy G.

Pettis is basically the only healthy receiver on the 49ers roster at the moment. Samuel, Hurd and Goodwin are all missing time at OTA’s this week. Last year Pettis ended the season on a strong note. Finishing the last five weeks with 20 catches on 31 targets and four touchdowns.

That was all with backup to the backup QB, Nick Mullens. With a full off-season of working with starter Jimmy Garoppolo I expect those numbers to take a huge jump, especially the touchdown numbers.

David Montgomery

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David Montgomery was such a huge question mark coming into the draft for me. Then I dug into the film, and noticed all the little things that all the draft experts were saying. He has tremendous balance, speed and will truck you over at the end of it all.

Could there have been a better landing spot than with the Chicago Bears? I do not think so. Especially with Jordan Howard getting traded to the Philadelphia Eagles that opens up 250 carries. With how ineffective Howard was last season, it is not out of question to project Montgomery to have a better statistical season.

Howard had 935 yards on 250 carries and nine touchdowns. Montgomery can easily go over 1k and match those touchdown numbers. I expect Montgomery to be a bell cow back. I do not expect Tarik Cohen to dig into his touches that much. Due to the fact that Montgomery has just as good of a pass catching skillset as Cohen.

Sell

Sony Michel

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It has been a weird off-season for Patriot running backs. Their backfield was crowded even before they drafted Damien Harris. And now insert Harris into the running back room and they have four running backs that could all produce. Rex Burkhead, James White, Damien Harris and Sony Michel.

Sony Michel stormed into the league last year finishing the season with 931 yards on 209 carries and six touchdowns. Coming into the off-season Michel was being advertised as a buy, but he recently got a scope of his knee and has been sitting out of OTA’s so far.

I still think that Michel will be a big part of this offense. I suspect that Bill Belichick is just trying to use load management to make sure that Michel is 100% healthy during the regular season and more importantly the post season. You should still be buying Michel just at the right price, he needs to be looked at as a low RB2.

Stefon Diggs

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Welcome to my Ted Talk, please stop buying Stefon Diggs. I have been seeing people buying Diggs in the 3rd round of every startup I’ve been a part of. Diggs has been in the NFL for four years now, and last year was his first year over 1000 receiving yards with 1021. Last season was his first season with over 100 catches as well with 102 catches.

Those are WR3 numbers, not WR1 numbers like he is being drafted. Does he has extremely high upside? Sure, but I think people need to temper their expectations. The fact that Dalvin Cook is finally healthy coming into a season, the Vikings will be looking to be a run heavy offense this season.

Did I even mention that he has a true WR2 on his team in Adam Thielen and has two high quality TE’s on his team with Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. That is just so many targets to get spread out evenly throughout the offense. I love Diggs, I just think he is more of a WR3 and would rather have Thielen over him.

Hold

Phillip Lindsay

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I did not like Lindsay coming into the off-season, but he has slowly started to grow on me. Lindsay busted onto the scene during his rookie season last year with, 1037 running yards on 192 attempts and nine touchdowns. Lindsay average an insane 5.4 yards per carry.

Yes, he has competition in his backfield with Royce Freeman. But looking at last season, Lindsay got two-thirds of the carries. I expect that to be about the same split this season as well.

It sucks for Lindsay that as soon as he came onto the scene they had a coaching change, so he has to win over the new coaching staff just like he did with the old coaching staff. It appears that new head coach Vic Fangio is going to look to be a run heavy offense so that benefits Lindsay.

TY Hilton

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It appears that we will finally get a healthy TY Hilton and a healthy Andrew Luck coming into the regular season. It is crazy to think that Hilton is coming into his eighth year in the NFL. Hilton led the league in yards in 2016 with 1448 yards.

He ended the season with a lot of momentum, during the 2nd half of the season he averaged 6.7 catches on 9.4 targets and .28 touchdowns a game. The fact of the matter is that Luck is back and healthy, I expect those numbers to go up just a tick especially the touchdowns.

I would say he would be having a monster year, but the Colts added WRs Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell and TE Jack Doyle is back and in the fold. expect Hilton to put up high end WR2 numbers next year.

Monthly reminder to BUY Darren Waller, you’ll thank me later.

If you want to check out more of my articles, come look at my page. Its full of dynasty articles that I think you’ll enjoy. You can also follow me on twitter @FFSuperflexGuru