Josh Allen quieted his doubters as the Buffalo Bills made the postseason for the 2nd time in 3 years. Can any Bills give you fantasy success?
When looking at fantasy players – or anything, really – we tend to look at them in isolation. We see something, focus on it and think of it in a vacuum. However, plenty of insight can be gained by looking at a player’s supporting cast and the infrastructure around them. Here at DynastyFootballDigest.com, we’re taking a team-by-team look at impactful fantasy players. In these season previews, you can expect to see:
- Top performer – The player I project to finish the highest at their position on the team.
- Biggest bust potential – Who is most likely to fall short of expectations this season?
- Sleeper to watch – This player, whether a rookie or an unheralded veteran, has a shot to make a splash in 2020.
- Stash for the future – One dart-throw to hold onto for future seasons. Relatively low cost, potentially high reward.
Without further ado, let’s dive into a team trying to stake their claim as an AFC contender: The Buffalo Bills.
Top performer – Josh Allen, quarterback
Josh Allen had a narrative coming out of Wyoming similar to that of other strong-armed quarterbacks of recent memory: absolute cannon; not very accurate; not the best college competition; boatloads of potential.
You can say what you want about his efficacy as a real-life quarterback (that playoff loss to Houston was awful, and he has yet to complete 60 percent of his passes in either of his first two seasons) but he has shown signs of growth that I believe will continue into 2020. Allen completed 52.8 percent of his passes as a rookie before completing 58.8 last season.
This might seem bullish, but I have Allen seeing another sizable leap in completion percentage this season, going up to 64 percent. Before you start complaining about how unreasonable that is, look at it this way: a completion percentage of 64 percent isn’t top-5 in that category. It isn’t top 10. It isn’t top 15. If last year’s numbers across the board were replicated, 64.4 percent would have ranked as the 18th-most accurate passer in the NFL. That’s definitely in range, especially with the addition of stud receiver Stefon Diggs. Add that with Allen’s incredible rushing floor (at least 510 yards and 8 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons), and you have a quarterback who might actually be a better dynasty asset than he’s made out to be.
I have Allen scoring 316 fantasy points this season, which would be enough for him to repeat as the QB6. I understand it’s not going to look pretty when you turn on Buffalo Bills games, but Allen’s rushing prowess combined with an increase in efficiency should allow him to sustain a high floor and ceiling.
Biggest bust potential – Devin Singletary, running back
Florida Atlantic alum Devin Singletary had a quality rookie season, eclipsing five yards per carry en route to a near-1,000-yard season from scrimmage. Had he not missed three games because of injury or Week 17, he would have entered Year 2 with a 1,000-yard campaign under his belt. So why is he in this “Biggest bust potential” section?
The answer lies in the pair of players Singletary shares a backfield with: Josh Allen and Zach Moss.
As mentioned above, Allen has rushed for a minimum of 510 yards and eight touchdowns during his first two seasons. That’s 99 potential points right there, gone. Next is the fact that Zach Moss excels in many of the areas Singletary does. The biggest difference is size and speed. Singletary is quicker but will surely not see as much goal line work. Moss, despite being an adept receiver of the football, is also set to become the Buffalo Bills’ goal-line running back. This leaves Singletary hanging high and dry in terms of opportunity. Singletary, unlike Allen, is a better real-life player than he is a fantasy player. I have him finishing this season as a low-end RB2, high-end RB3.
Sleeper to watch – Zach Moss, running back
See “Biggest bust potential” above. Zack Moss has a July ADP of RB43. Singletary’s is RB25. The difference in production is nowhere near the difference in price. Moss was a third-round selection in April’s draft, and he will take the carries vacated by Frank Gore and then some. We all know goal-line and red-zone touches are fantasy gold, and any usage disparity between the two should be nullified by those golden touches handed to Moss. For this season, I have Singletary putting up RB21 numbers and Moss putting up RB29 numbers. Fade Singletary and wait the extra few rounds for Moss, who could wind up stealing carries between the 20s from Singletary.
Stash for the future – Dawson Knox, tight end
The addition of Diggs pushes everyone else down the pecking order, and that includes Dawson Knox. Last season, John Brown and Cole Beasley each totaled triple-digit targets, while Knox was third on the team with 50. Now that Diggs is in the fold, Knox’s ceiling, especially as it pertains to volume, is capped.
The bright side: Tight ends normally take a couple of years to develop, and Beasley and Brown are on the wrong side of 30. Knox’s target share should increase in the coming years.
Perhaps an eye-popping stat: Of all the NFL tight ends with at least 50 targets, Knox was third with 13.9 yards per reception.
Knox is being drafted as the TE29. He’s not a top-10 or even a top-15 option, but he’s as good of a bet as any mid-20s TE to outperform his price in dynasty leagues.