Vegas 2020 Over/Under Prop Projections That Expose Undervalued WRs
After watching the Part 6 of the ESPN, Michael Jordan documentary series (“The Last Dance”), I found myself scrolling through the season-long, over/under props for the 2020 NFL season. I noticed some high over/under prop projections for some wide receivers that have been going too low in drafts, for what Vegas is projecting them to do for 2020.
To establish those WRs worth/value, I’m going to use Odell Beckham Jr (OBJ) as a fantasy stud WR baseline. To be clear, OBJ hasn’t been a top 12 overall WR, since 2016, yet if you ask fantasy players to name their own rated, top 12 WRs, he’s almost always on those lists, and his draft ADP (which hovers around #20-#30 overall) reflects that bias.
If you look at the ADP Trends from our site, you’ll see OBJ at 20-22 ADP from March/April, although it seems like he’s trending down, during May, so far.
So let’s first look at OBJ’s over/under projections:
So we see OBJ’s projection is 75.5 catches/1050.5 yds/6.5 TDs. That’s right around his average on catches and yards, the last couple years, with elevated TD projections. For reference: OBJ’s six receiving TDs helped get him to #15 WR in PPR in 2018, and his four receiving TDs in 2019 bounced him down to #25 WR in PPR leagues.
With all this in mind, let’s look at those undervalued WRs and their over/under projections.
Juju’s over/under props are showing projections of 91.5 catches/1099.5 yds/6.5 TDs. 16 more projected catches than OBJ, almost 50 more yards, and the same amount of TDs. Those projections fall between what he produced his rookie year (79/917/7TDs) and his breakout 2018 year (111/1426/7TDs). With the return of Big Ben Rothlisberger, Juju has the chance to put up some pretty good #s.
Those Vegas projections would put him as a top 12 PPR WR, in 2020. JuJu has been going #WR 19/ADP 42 in our May 2020 Dynasty ADP (here).
Ranks in YAC per reception among the 51 NFL receivers with 50+ receptions as rookies since 2006:
1. AJ Brown (8.7)
2. Deebo Samuel (8.4)
3. DJ Moore (7.9)
4. Julio Jones (7.4)
5. TY Hilton (7.4)
6. JuJu Smith-Schuster (6.5)
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) April 29, 2020
DeVante Parker’s over/under projections of 66.5 receptions/1090.5 yards/6.5 TDs are only 5 projected PPR points away from OBJ’s projections. Parker is WR 30/ADP 68, that’s a tremendous discount from OBJ. Also, getting a high producing WR, like Parker, around ADP 68, would allow you to draft a premier QB or TE in RD 3, thus giving you advantages over other owners, in positions of scarcity on your foster. Parker is star WR on his way up.
DeVante Parker was one of the best WRs in the NFL from Week 9 on in 2019. His ranks among WRs in that time:
— PFF MIA Dolphins (@PFF_Dolphins) May 4, 2020
Adam Thielen’s projections of 84.5 receptions/1199.5 yards/7.5 TDs are nearly 30 PPR points above OBJ. Thielen is WR 16/ADP 38. Your choice of a WR, in the 3rd or 4th rd, could come down to OBJ or Thielen…Vegas is tipping you off toward what they think could a projected thunderous season, from Thielen. Thielen definitely has the ability, and opportunity with Diggs gone, to pull those #s off.
125+ Receiving Yd Gms, since 2016:
DeAndre Hopkins = 7
Adam Thielen = 8
— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) May 3, 2020
A.J. Green‘s over/under projections of 69.5 receptions/975.5 yards/7.5 TDs are similar in total points to DeVante Parker, and again are only a few points away from OBJ’s projections. A.J. Green is WR 34/ADP 79, and probably the best value of the four WRs featured here.
— James Rapien (@JamesRapien) May 4, 2020
*Rookie Bonus: Jerry Jeudy
Because of the recent rookie buzz, I’ve thrown in Jerry Jeudy’s over/under projection. Hard to compare Jeudy to OBJ, obviously, but his 850 receiving yards is the highest over/under yards projections for any rookie WR. Definitely worth taking a look.
The folks at Vegas aren’t always right with their projections, but these projections are calculated, with millions of $ at stake. In fantasy football, these positional trade-ups in value are what can make or break your roster. You can be the owner that clings to the perceived value of a former stud player, or you can be a pro-active owner that uses every resource to give yourself an advantage, by digging up the undervalued players that can lead you to fantasy glory.
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