Week 7: Using Strength of Schedule To Find Sleepers And Studs For The Week

Week 7: Using Strength of Schedule To Find Sleepers And Studs For The Week

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Taking A Look At Week 7 Players Who Have Excellent Strength Of Schedule Matchups.


One of the tools I like to use for helping to pick fantasy players to sit/start, and also for streaming decisions, is the strength of schedule (or SOS for short).

While SOS is not a perfect tool, as there are so many variables in football (free agency, coaching changes, injuries, etc.), it is useful as a general guide to getting players who have great matchups based upon the opposing team’s past performance trends.

I’ll show you the top 3 players at each position for players who are in-season SOS targets (based on the results of the season, so far).

Here are some players who appear to have soft-schedules/matchups for Week 7.

QBs:

NY Giants QB-Daniel Jones (vs. ARI): The Arizona Cardinals have been consistently bad vs. QBs, this season.  They are also giving away the most points, by far, to TEs this season, as well.  That sets up nicely for the Daniel Jones/Evan Engram connection, especially if Saquon Barkley can play and the Cardinals try to sell out to shut him down.

Los Angeles Rams QBs-Jared Goff ( @ ATL): The Atlanta Falcons are again on this list, although they do play better defense when they are at home.  Cooper Kupp gets the premium matchup vs. Kazee, with Woods and Cooks also have plus matchups.  If you have Goff on your roster, this is the week you want to get him in, as he has only 7 TDs for the season, but the Rams recent CB changes (Talib to IR, Peters trade out, and Ramsey traded in) implies this could be a shoot-out, as neither team will be able to slow down the other team’s air game.

Buffalo Bills QB-Josh Allen (vs. MIA): It’s been a while since we’ve seen Josh Allen bring a “Josh Allen” type of game, where he destroys both on the run and via the air, but this game sets up nicely for Allen.

RBs:

Jacksonville Jaguars RBs (@ Cin)-Leonard Fournette: The Bengals cannot stop the run.  Fournette has the best matchup in the NFL, in Week 7, but the Bengals are so bad against the run that they give up MORE points to RB2s when the Bengals are at home (17.9 FP for RB1 vs .20.9 for RB2).  If the pattern holds, Ryquell Armstead has value this week too.

Minnesota RBs vs. (@Det)-Dalvin Cook:  The Detroit Lions running game has regressed to being unable to stop the run, for another year.  Dalvin Cook has been one of the best RBs of the season on a team that LOVES to run the ball.

Buffalo Bills RBs (vs. Mia)-Frank Gore and Devin Singletary: As with the Bengals, the Dolphins run defense gives up so many points that two running backs usually pinball up the stats. The Bills have plus matchups, for RBs, in 5 of the next 7 games…If you’re a believer in Devin Singletary, this is the beginning of what could be a VERY nice run of games.

WRs:

Baltimore WRs (@ SEA)-Whomever ends up at WR1 and WR2: The Seahawks are giving up bunches of points to WR1 and WR2 whenever they play at home. Marquise Brown & Willie Snead? Willie Snead and Miles Boykin? Snead and Ingram? Stats are a bit skewed because of the big game from John Ross when the Bengals came to town…When the Saints came to Seattle, both Kamara (an RB) and Michael Thomas did the receiving damage. If Marquise Brown is out, it could turn into a big day for Ingram.

Indianapolis Colts WRs (vs. HOU)- TY Hilton: No team gives up more points to WR1s, when on the road, than the Houston Texans (Michael Thomas 10/123, Keenan Allen 13/183/2TDs, Tyreek Hill 5/80/2TDs)!

Dallas Cowboys WRs (vs. PHI)-Michael Gallup & Tavon Austin: Terrible game for Amari Cooper to miss as the Eagles are giving up 62.2 points to WRs when they play on the road.  Gallup is probably a weekly start but the soft matchup gives Tavon Austin and Devin Smith possible bye week replacements, this week if you’re in a pinch.

TEs:

Baltimore TEs (vs. SEA)-Mark Andrews: In addition to being bad vs. WRs, at home, the Seahawks are allowing buckets of points to TEs, overall, as well.  Mark Andrews is averaging just under 6 receptions/game and is one of Lamar Jackson‘s favorite targets.  Weak matchup+high volume=fantasy gold.

NY Giants TEs (vs. Ari)-Evan Engram:  I mentioned it in the Daniel Jones blurb (above), but the Cardinals D that has been THE WORST in the NFL, so far this season vs. TEs.  How bad? If you were to put all the names of the other NFL teams in a hat and picked out two random team names, the odds are EXCELLENT that those two teams, combined, don’t give up as many points to TEs than the Arizona Cardinals.

Minnesota TEs (vs. DET)-Kyle Rudolph: I’m bucking the SOS trend here, for a minute, to show something I noticed in the offseason.  Almost every year, Kyle Rudolph has a big game versus Detroit.  2018-9/122/2 TDs. 2017-4/63/2 TDs. 2016-9/64.  2015 5/30/1 TD. 2014 7/69. 2012 7/64/1 TD. Sure, the Vikings play Detroit TWICE per year, so that’s 50/50 odds, and Rudolph only has 9 catches FOR THE YEAR, but certain players just dominate versus certain teams (especially in rivalry games).

 


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