Week 6: Using Strength Of Schedule To Find Sleepers And Studs

Week 6: Using Strength Of Schedule To Find Sleepers And Studs

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Taking A Look At Week 6 Players Who Have Excellent Strength Of Schedule Matchups.


One tool I like to use for helping to pick fantasy players to sit/start, and also for streaming decisions, is the strength of schedule (or SOS for short).

While SOS is not a perfect tool, as there are so many variables in football (free agency, coaching changes, injuries, etc.), it is useful as a general guide to getting players who have great matchups based upon the opposing team’s past performance trends.

I’ll show you the top 3 players at each position for players who are in-season SOS targets (based on the results of the season, so far).

Here are some players who appear to have soft-schedules/matchups for Week 6.

QBs:

Carolina Panthers QB-Kyle Allen (vs. TB): Tampa Bay is giving up 323 yds/game to opposing offenses. Carolina/Tampa Bay squared off already this season, in Week 2, where the Bucs gave up 333 passing to Cam Newton.  Note: Greg Olsen, Curtis Samuel, and D.J. Moore combined for 290 yards receiving! Moore and Samuel have yummy CB matchups.

Arizona Cardinals QB-Kyler Murray (vs. ATL): The Atlanta Falcons have given up 12 passing TDs through Week 5.  Also, opposing QBs are averaging a hefty 117.0 QB rating.  Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk have two of the best CB matchups for Week 6 (vs. ATL’s Kazee and Oliver).

Washington Redskins QB-Case Keenum/Colt McCoy/Dwayne Haskins (whoever gets the start vs. MIA): Dolphins are giving up 296 passing yds/game, along with giving up 12 passing TDs, and giving a whopping 137.6 QB rating vs. opposing QBs.

RBs:

Baltimore Ravens RBs (vs. Cin)-Mark Ingram+Gus Edwards: The Bengals are giving up 167 rushing yards/game along with 7 rushing TDs and 7 runs over 20 yards. They are also giving up the highest % of targets to RBs.  I put Gus Edwards in there, as backup RBs are also scoring a ton vs. the B.engals.

NY Jets RBs vs. (Dal)-Le’Veon Bell:  This one is a bit deceptive, the stats got a bit skewed, because of the 4 TDs that the Cowboys gave up to Aaron Jones, last week.  Regardless, the Cowboys are giving up a ton of catches to RBs, and Bell is in the top 25, in the NFL, for receptions for players at any position, as he is averaging just under 7 receptions/game.

Washington Redskins RBs (vs. M.ia)-Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: The Dolphins are giving up 175.8 yds/game rushing. The new Redskins coach, Bill Callahan, likes to run.  Like the Bengals, the Dolphins have been so bad vs. the run that it’s not uncommon for RB2s to get a ton of fantasy points.

WRs:

Arizona Cardinals WRs (vs. ATL)-Larry Fitzgerald+Christian Kirk: As discussed above, Fitzgerald and Kirk have great CB matchups vs. a defensive team that opposing QBs have been exploiting.

Carolina Panthers WRs (vs. TB)- DJ Moore+Curtis Samuel: Both these WRs combined for 180 yards (89 for Moore/91 for Samuel) in Week 2. Tampa Bay was so focused on shutting down McCaffery that these guys were pinballing up the stats.  As TB won that game, we could see a repeat of this.  Either way, the Buccanneers have not been stopping opposing WRs/passing offenses.

Minnesota Vikings WRs (vs. PHI)-Adam Thielen: The Eagles defense hasn’t been stopping opposing WR#1s ( Week 1: McLaurin 5/125/1 TD, Week 2: Julio Jones 5/106/2 TDs, Week 4 Adams 10/180).

TEs:

Cleveland Browns TEs (vs. SEA) Ricky Seals-Jones: With the Colts on a bye, the Seahawks D is next up for worst D vs. TEs.  Ricky Seals-Jones seems to be taking over that #1 TE spot.  He could be a sneaky streaming or cheap DFS play.

Atlanta Falcons TEs (vs. Ari)-Austin Hooper:  Hooper is 7th in receptions for the entire NFL, and he’s facing a Cardinals D that has been THE WORST in the NFL, so far this season vs. TEs.  $$

Carolina Panthers TEs (vs. TB)-Greg Olsen: Another weapon for Kyle Allen to exploit the porous Tampa Bay D.  Bucs have been one of the worst teams vs. TEs AND Olsen torched Tampa Bay in Week 2 for 6 receptions/110 yards.

Defenses:

Washington Redskins D (vs. MIA):  Redskins are facing a Miami D that is THE most generous team for giving opposing defenses points…The Redskins aren’t far behind them (32nd vs. 29th).  Bad vs. Bad.  Redskins have more overall talent, particularly on offense, so rolling with the Redskins D is a ballsy move, but one that statistically looks likely to pay off.

Dallas Cowboys D (vs. NYJ): The Jets have been starting their 3rd string QB for most of the season, and that has led to opposing defenses feasting on the Jets.  With Sam Darnold possibly coming back, for this game, all that might change…or he could be too rusty and leaning on Bell.  Jets lead the league at 23 sacks given away.

Carolina Panthers D (vs. TB): Bucs have given up 18 sacks, for far, and Winston is averaging an INT/game

Just for comparison-Below are the top 3, for each position in Week 6, if you were using the preseason strength of schedule, which is based from last year’s/2018 season-long data:

QBs: Carolina Panthers QB, Arizona Cardinals QB, Baltimore Ravens QB

RBs: Houston RBs, Baltimore RBs, Atlanta RBs, Arizona RBs

WRs: Dallas Cowboys WRs, Jacksonville Jaguars WRs, Minnesota Vikings WRs

TEs: Kansas City Chiefs TEs, Houston Texans TEs, Seattle Seahawks TEs, Baltimore Ravens TEs

D: Atlanta Falcons D, Carolina Panthers D, L.A. Rams D


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