Sell Now! Tarik Cohen’s Surging ADP Has Peaked

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The time has come to dump your Tarik Cohen shares, as maximum ADP is here.

Post Jordan Howard:

On March 28th, the Philadelphia Eagles traded for Jordan Howard, leaving recently signed RB Mike Davis, and RB Tarik Cohen as prominent benefactors from Howard being traded. With Mike Davis’ relative inexperience, with only 234 carries after four years in the league, most people jumped on the Tarik Cohen train, as the RB the Chicago Bears would look to give the most carries when the 2019 season begins.

In response, you saw a lot of posts like the ones below which lead to the pumping of Tarik Cohen’s ADP (scroll down).

Tarik Cohen = Rocketman ADP:

You have Tarik Cohen, who the eye test (and stats) show is a dynamic player, and who had combined rushing and receiving totals of 1169 yards, in 2018…that was on only 99 rushing attempts with a whopping 71 receptions. With Jordan Howard leaving, an opportunity for 250 additional rushing attempts, that Howard got in the Bears 2018 offense, would be up-for-grabs between Cohen and Davis.  Cohen averaged 4.7 yards/carry, in 2018, if he picked up even 100 of those 25o rushing attempts left from the Howard departure, he could tack on another 400-500 yards of offense, giving him around 1600 total yards of offense.  He would be a poor man’s, Alvin Kamara.

That news sent Tarik Cohen’s stock through the roof.  His redraft and bestball ADP quickly rose to the 40s, and peaked in the late 30s, with his dynasty value trailing closely behind that (he went 49th/5.1 in a Dynasty Football Digest PPR-Offense only Dynasty mock draft that we did right around that time).

The Draft:

If this was August, and the Bears were going into the pre-season with just Cohen and Davis as their lead backs, then Cohen would be an excellent investment.  The projected stats show he would be valuable and someone to target for drafts and trades/buys, even with Mike Davis stealing carries as the Bears RB2.

But, it’s April and the 2019 NFL Draft is upon us.  So there’s a real possibility that the Chicago Bears add an RB in the draft.  How likely is it? Check out this tweet (below)–The Bears are the #1 team (tied) for bringing in rookie RB prospects, before the draft.  If you look at the other categories, this pretty much tracks for teams with big needs/holes at positions: Giants-need a QB, Redskins need a WR, and the Broncos need a TE.  [Side note: The Jets also having a ton of RB visits is interesting. They signed Le’Veon Bell, as a free agent, for some big money-so they’re probably not in the market for a rookie RB that will start, but someone who can back-up Bell and that does better than Elijah McGwire’s 3.0yrds/carry average]. **

(Scroll down)

Stock Plummet:

If you’re a Tarik Cohen owner, you’re probably thinking there’s a chance the Chicago Bears might not be drafting a starting RB (like the Jets are probably not), except if you look at the list you’ll see the names of top RB prospects (Josh Jacobs, Devin Singletary, Miles Sanders, Trayvon Williams etc.). If one of those players get drafted, there’s a genuine possibility (barring injury or bust), that the Chicago Bears give that player a chance to start, or at the very worst a chance to be part of a three-headed RBBC. This adding of another RB would significantly lower Cohen’s stock.

Until the Chicago Bears draft someone, Cohen’s value will hold, but WHEN they do, Cohen’s value will fall.  Cohen will still have value as he has a decent chance to approach 1000 combined yards (if he can get a similar amount of carries and targets as a backup/change-of-pace back, like in 2018). His stock will be on a decline for the next few months though; it’ll never be higher than it is now (the bottom could even plunge further if the rookie has a good pre-season).

Final Analysis:

Sometimes, you gotta sell high, and now is that time with Tarik Cohen.

Some current players that are hovering around Cohen’s current ADP: Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, and Kerryon Johnson. That’s a good jumping off point, for your trade negotiations.

Remember: Perception is value–The perceived value on Tarik Cohen is at its peak, us that to your advantage.

Sell high, take what you can, and count it as a win.

Follow me and hit me up on twitter @Flavorizethis. We can talk fantasy football: redraft, best ball, and dynasty leagues, as well as DFS fantasy football. You can read more of my articles here:

**Here’s that link if you’re interested to see what prospects team have brought in:

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