Buy/Sell/Hold Post NFL Draft
The awesome thing about fantasy football dynasty leagues is that it is year round. As Bill Belichick says, “No days off!” There is nothing better than when big trade news drops and a player on your team’s value goes up like a rocket. It is often tough to decide when to trade a player and when to keep a player on your fantasy squad. I will be coming out with a buy/sell/hold article every month leading up to the season. It will be based around the trendy players that month. This month, I will start off with players affected by moves made during the 2019 NFL Draft.
I will breakdown veteran players affected by moves in the draft & rookies that values skyrocketed or plummeted.
The Art of Juggling Your Roster
Buying low and selling high is the ultimate goal in fantasy football, especially in dynasty. Of course, there are time where you may buy high and sell low. The best thing to do, when approached with a trade, is to look at it from multiple angles. The aspects taken into consideration are the players’ potential ceiling and floor, surrounding teammates and coaches, and injury history. In each of these monthly articles I will take all formats into account when applicable. You will see me reference DTC, Dynasty Trade Calculator, in this article. which I use as one of my decision tools in all my trades.
Relationships Are Key
It’s always good to maintain good relationships with your league mates. The quickest way to shut down trade negotiations is to continuously offer one sided trades. Sometimes it just takes one terrible trade offer to make somebody not want to do business with you. I always try to put myself in my trade partners shoes before sending my trade. I always think, “would I accept this trade.” And if is clearly a no I try to spice it up a little bit before sending it.
Leading up to the draft, there were no player discussed about who’s value will be affected by the draft more than Marlon Mack. Those questions were valid. Mack burst onto the scene last season with 908 rushing yards on 195 touches and 9 touchdowns.
The fantasy community fell in love with him during playoffs, Week 13-16 standard league format. Mack was a high-end RB2 during those weeks averaging 13 points per game, ppr leagues.
Going into the off-season, dynasty owners that had shares of Mack were tossing and turning every night about whether to hold or sell Mack. It was even more difficult for owners trying to acquire Mack, not knowing if he was going to be the Indianapolis Colts RB1 going into training camp.
But after the 2019 NFL Draft concluded, it was apparent that the Colts were all-in in having Mack be their workhorse running back.
DTC Evaluation: 15.7
DTC Comparison: Tyler Boyd (15.4)
Fant was selected with the #20 overall pick in the 1st round by the Denver Broncos. I was hoping he was going to slide so the Raiders could swoop him up, but he didn’t make it to their #27 overall selection. Fant couldn’t have went to a better situation though.
The Broncos are one of the most tight end heavy offenses in the NFL. They haven’t had very many quality options at that position since Julius Thomas left in 2014. They acquired former Baltimore Ravens franchise quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco is known for targeting his tight end often, especially when he was under pressure.
Fant is arguably the best receiving tight end in the draft. He needs to work on his blocking skills, but you don’t get fantasy points for pancakes. So we don’t have to worry about that as much. With the tight end position being a barren wasteland, Fant is already a top 10 tight end in fantasy football. He is easily a top 8 selection in your rookie draft this summer.
DTC Evaluation: 12.1
DTC Comparison: Devonta Freeman (13.1)
Goodwin was slated to be the San Francisco 49ers WR1 last season. Fantasy owners drafted him as their WR3/Flex. Goodwin only played 11 games last season as he dealt with a magnitude of injuries, majority his hamstring. As a pure deep threat receiver, it is imperative that he is healthy or he wont be able to run by defenses.
Goodwin was already on thin ice before the off-season started. Last season, Dante Pettis broke out and stole the show. Pettis finished the season with 467 receiving yards on 27 catches and 5 touchdowns. Pettis is slated to be the 49ers WR1 to start the OTA’s.
Not to mention the big elephant in the room. When Jimmy Garopollo went down with a torn ACL, the rotating door of quarterbacks came into fruition. That’s when the legend of George Kittle was born. Kittle finished the season with 1377 receiving yards on 88 catches and 5 touchdowns. The 5 touchdowns are bound to increase while you can make a case for his catches and receiving yards to stay on the same level.
Goodwin will have to fight to even make the roster after the 49ers drafted Deebo Samuel. Samuel is a tremendous slot receiver that always finds a way to create space and create first downs.
DTC Evaluation: 1.9
DTC Comparison: Rookie Pick 3.12 (1.6)
Hollywood got the short end of the stick. He was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens. Everybody and their mom was hoping and praying the Ravens wont draft their WR1 this draft. I feel bad for Hollywood and it really isn’t his fault. Say the Colts draft him, his value would have sky rocketed.
The Ravens are just a wasteland for pass catchers. They are not fantasy friendly what-so-ever. The Ravens are one of only three teams that ran the ball over 49% of their plays during the 2018 NFL Season. The Ravens ran the ball on 49.6% of their offensive plays. Compared to high scoring offense of the Kansas City Chiefs with 41%.
Brown has all the ability to make an instant impact in the NFL. He will just have to make the most of every opportunity, especially with Lamar Jackson as his quarterback. He averaged 4.6 air yards per attempt last season. Jackson started eight games last season and only threw six touchdowns, while he ran for five touchdowns.
Brown is a rookie I would stay away from, unless he falls into your lap in the mid-to-late 2nd round in your rookie draft this summer.
DTC Evaluation: 11.1
DTC Comparison: Eric Ebron (11.2)
I think I can hear the boos from my computer. Yes I know, Mariota has been breaking hearts since coming into the league. He has been labeled injury prone the past few seasons, and those are fair concerns. But to Marcus’s defense, the Tennessee Titans have not done a very good job supplying his with young, elite talent.
They gifted him physical freak, Corey Davis a couple seasons ago. And all Mariota has done during that time is ruin Davis’s fantasy value. But all that could change this off-season. Yes, I am aware that Mariota will be on his third offensive coordinator in three years. But I think he can overcome that and have a successful 2019 campaign.
The Titans have brought in who many considered the WR1 coming into the draft, AJ Brown. Brown has all the skillsets that will compliment Davis and turn Mariota back into the Heisman winning trophy stud he was at Oregon. I think it is finally time to sit and wait for Mariota to pay us our dividends we deserve.
DTC Evaluation: 19.2 (Superflex)
DTC Comparion: Courtland Sutton (21.3)
Can it get any better than being drafted to be Tom Brady’s WR1? Harry was already widely considered the best wide receiving prospect in this years draft. And his landing spot only helped out his case to be 1.01 in most rookie drafts.
Harry was a stud at Arizona State, finishing his junior year with 1088 recieving yards on 73 receptions and 9 touchdowns, earning him a 1st-Team All-Pac 12. He was projected to be a 1st or 2nd round selection, and the New England Patriots traded up to the last pick in the 1st round and selected Harry.
Harry is instantly the Patriots best pass catcher on their roster. He will look to make an immediate impact on their offense. Harry will be penciled in as their WR1 come training camp, all he needs to do is make it to the regular season healthy and who knows what he is capable of.
DTC Evaluation: 19.3
DTC Comparison: Leonard Fournette (19.9)