Marquise Brown is the ultimate Risk/Reward prospect in 2019 dynasty rookie drafts. Is the reward worth the risk?
Marquise Brown is the most electric and exciting wide receiver in this class. An argument could be made for Parris Campbell, but I think it would be a bad argument.
Brown has the elite speed that every team covets at the wide receiver position. Not only that, but he has positive traits almost across the board as a prospect. The problem is, he is small. He is short. He is light. His frame is tiny. That raises a lot of questions about his durability in the NFL.
To compound the issue, Marquise Brown suffered a Lisfranc injury in college. Those are generally not good. Most athletes can recover from this, but there are numerous cases of players not being able to retain their explosiveness and agility after this type of injury.
Those are two of the most valuable assets that Marquise Brown has at his disposal.
The risk is that he doesn’t ever fully regain his speed, agility, and explosiveness. If he does come back, fully healthy, with no ill effects, the question becomes whether or not he can remain healthy with a 5’10, 163-pound frame. I can’t answer that question, but his size is definitely a serious concern, especially after his injury.
Those are the risks with selecting Marquise Brown in your dynasty rookie drafts. What are the rewards?
If Marquise Brown were still the exact size that he is now, but someone could guarantee to me, with 100% certainty, that he would remain healthy for the duration of his career, Marquise Brown would be my number three player in dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts, just behind DK Metcalf and Hakeem Butler.
He’s really good at football.
Obviously Marquise Brown has elite speed. That’s his calling card. Unlike other speedsters in the class, he has other plus traits that help him project more favorably as a deep threat. He tracks the ball really well and makes good adjustments to poorly thrown footballs. He has the speed to run under passes and the coordination and body control to make adjustments without losing too much forward speed.
One of my favorite parts of Marquise Brown is his competitive attitude. He is feisty and he plays with a fiery attitude. Competition runs in his veins and it shows on the football field. If nothing else, you know that you’re going to get everything that he has on every single play.
After the catch, Marquise Brown is exciting. He doesn’t just have speed, but also elite elusiveness. He isn’t going to break many tackles, but he isn’t trying to run guys over either, he doesn’t have to. Every time that Marquise Brown touches the football, he could take it to the house.
Despite his small size and elite RAC ability, Marquise Brown is not going to get thrown into a gadget role. His routes are outstanding. He makes sharp cuts at the top of his routes, is explosive out of his breaks and is just plain faster than everyone else. He pairs his top-end athleticism with nice cuts and precise routes and creates separation with ease.
The primary concerns with Marquise Brown are concentration drops and his ability to catch the ball in traffic, particularly over the middle. Both of those, theoretically, stem from having small hands, and that isn’t going to change.
That’s ok. Those are not the ways that you expect Marquise Brown to win. He is going to excel on deep balls, creating separation on his routes and making plays with the ball in his hands
So where do we value him in dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts? That’s a really hard question to answer, but I’m going to do my best to weigh the risk against the potential rewards.
The upside with Marquise Brown is tremendous. The risk is unavoidable. I think he has to slot in right after whoever you consider to be the last “top-tier” dynasty rookie. For me, that ends up around pick 1.06 or the 1.07, right in the middle of the first round. After that, prospects tend to carry a little more risk.
Marquise Brown carries a lot of risk, but he offers significantly more upside than any of those that fall in behind him. Above him, players are far more safe as prospects, and the best way to win a rookie draft is to not lose it.