F3 Mock Draft Review Part 1

F3 Mock Draft Review Part 1
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We’re halfway through our latest mock. Here’s a pick-by-pick breakdown of my draft through nine rounds.

For our latest mock draft, I chose the 8th spot. This put me in a position to be faced with some tough decisions right from the jump but this is the purpose of mock drafting. We are giving ourselves the opportunity to make more informed decisions based on predictability and gain an edge on our opponents.

To some degree we can narrow down a pool of players for the first three or four rounds based on draft slot. Naturally, mocking helps refine that pool. While every draft is different, we are laying the general framework for what we hope will be a successful dynasty squad. So without further adieu, here we go.

Pick 1.08 – Todd Gurley (RB), Los Angeles Rams

Taking Gurley with the 8th pick of the first round might seem like a steal in a month or two. Sean McVay seems to believe Gurley will be the focal point of the Rams offense next year. If true, he is a slam dunk top-5 pick. Still, I debated between Gurley and Michael Thomas because receivers have a longer shelf life than running backs. I went with Gurley for a couple reasons, mostly because I think his health won’t be an issue. There is some uncertainty with Thomas as well. Once Drew Brees retires, his outlook might not look so rosy.

Pick 2.05 – Tyreek Hill (WR), Kansas City Chiefs

I was really hoping James Conner would fall to me but he went one pick before mine. I chose Hill before the report surfaced about his son being removed from his home; had I known, I would have picked Julio Jones. If we assume Hill won’t face discipline from the league, this is another steal of a pick. Hill was creeping into the back of the first round just six weeks ago. Playing with Patrick Mahomes gives him week-winning upside, probably more than any other receiver as he can pop off for 40+ fantasy points. In dynasty, I love betting on elite talent so I don’t mind the gamble with Hill. (Editor’s note, this was written before the Hill investigation was re-opened)

Pick 3.08 – George Kittle (TE), San Francisco 49ers

This is right around the part of the draft where a lot of the “safe” picks are off the board. Luckily, Kittle was still available and I was thrilled to scoop a guy I have as a top-20 dynasty asset with pick #32. The selection of Kittle gives me elite players at three different positions and a stud in the weakest player pool in fantasy football. There is an enormous edge to be had when you draft an impact player at a position that is devoid of them. Kittle checks that box. This is probably my favorite pick so far.

Pick 4.05 – Robert Woods (WR), Los Angeles Rams

This pick was all about floor for as I believe Woods is one of the safest selections in fantasy. He has a rock solid target share (24%) in a Rams’ offense that should continue to dominate. Cooper Kupp’s return will eat into Woods’ role a bit but he’s coming off an ACL tear and might not be 100%. I considered Chris Godwin, Kenyan Drake, and one of the quarterbacks not named Mahomes but with my roster containing some high variance players, I felt Woods was a perfect fit. I’ll take his weekly double digit PPR floor to supplement my first three picks.

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Pick 5.08 – Kenyan Drake (RB), Miami Dolphins

Staying true to my #brand, I went Drake over Tevin Coleman, Derrick Henry, and Mark Ingram. It was an easy pick for me because I believe in two things: Talent and opportunity. With Adam Gase moving on and a defensive minded head coach in Brian Flores taking over, Drake should see an increased role in the offense. In what was considered a down year in 2018, Drake amassed 1,000 combined yards with 53 receptions and nine touchdowns. I believe there is a lot of room for growth and I have no problem with Drake, who just turned 25 and has limited wear and tear on his body, as my RB2.

Pick 6.05 – Christian Kirk (WR), Arizona Cardinals

Selecting Kirk was done under the assumption of two things: The Cardinals selecting Kyler Murray this week and Kliff Kingsbury having a Sean McVay-type influence on the offense. Under this scenario, Murray and Kirk could be an explosive combination for the next decade. I am willing to bet on the possibility of this happening, especially in the 6th Round where a 22-year old receiver with Kirk’s ability seemed sensible. I also considered Will Fuller, Dante Pettis, and Tyler Lockett but Kirk’s age relative to the rest of this group was what swayed my decision.

  • Note: This is the first pick where if I had a mulligan, I would take it and choose Lockett instead. With Russell Wilson signing a new deal, Lockett’s role in the Seattle offense is stable and he should continue to operate as their WR1. 

Pick 7.08 – Chris Carson (RB), Seattle Seahawks

This is another pick that was on #brand and I was thrilled to snag Carson this late. My affection for him is well-documented through the linked article and my dynasty ranks on DFD so I don’t need to elaborate much. Just know that in the 7th Round and as my RB3, this is ICS: Involuntary Click Select.

Pick 8.05 – Damien Williams (RB), Kansas City Chiefs

Taking Williams here felt like a steal and even if he is only relevant for the next two years, here are the five running backs who were taken next: Miles Sanders, Jerick McKinnon, James White, Isaiah Crowell, and David Montgomery. Of that group, Sanders might be the only pick you could make a reasonable case for and without knowing his landing spot its a thin argument.

Williams was a league winner in 2018 as his production over the last month of the season (350 combined yards and 4 TDs) was on the level of an RB1. He followed that up with a strong postseason and a contract extension so the Chiefs obviously like him. The presence of Carlos Hyde is pushing his value down draft boards right now, but I don’t see Hyde as a major threat. Williams’ versatility and familiarity with the offense should give him the edge for playing time in 2019 and beyond.

Pick 9.08 – Robby Anderson (WR), New York Jets

Would you believe me if I said Robby Anderson is just 25? It feels like we have been waiting on a breakout, though some classify 2017 as his coming out party. At this point in the draft, upside rules and Anderson has plenty of it. Sam Darnold is entering his 2nd season and with the addition of Le’Veon Bell, the Jets’ offense should be as good as it has been since 2015 and possibly its best in 10 years. Adam Gase comes to town which should be good for the passing offense in general, though he has had difficulty utilizing his best players. Still, at 115 overall, Anderson is tough to pass up. I did consider Andy Isabella and Deebo Samuel, but I am loathe to draft rookies without knowing where they will be playing.

At the halfway point, my team looks like this:

  • QB: None
  • RB: Gurley, Drake, Carson, Williams
  • WR: Hill, Woods, Kirk, Anderson
  • TE: Kittle

I have yet to take a QB or draft a rookie, which I am fine with. There are still a lot of quality QBs on the board and it isn’t a SuperFlex Mock. Regarding rookies, until I see where they land they will be a tough sell for me in the first 10 rounds. There is a ton of upside on this team so far and I haven’t had much buyer’s remorse. I love my running backs and getting Kittle will continue to be a priority for me this offseason.

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky to talk about anything with fantasy football or fantasy baseball. Also, be sure to follow @DynastyFBDigest and @IDPGuys  for everything fantasy football related.