DFS: Examining the Monday Night Game of the Denver Broncos vs. the Oakland Raiders for a Single Game Slate.
I explained the single-game DFS in my last article, but to recap:
The twist with the single-game DFS tournaments is that you can select a single player, from the ones that you roster, as a “captain” (for Draft Kings) or “MVP” (for FanDuel). On both sites, that single-player then earn 1.5X whatever points he gets for the game (so 20 points if he’s in the non-MVP slot become 30 points if that same player is in that MVP/Captain slot). Choosing the right player as your MVP is crucial to making your roster score higher, and another way for you to separate yourself from the pack.
Most people will have 3 or 4 similar players, on their roster, like everyone else, so finding the one player that has a good game, that usually isn’t a star is essential.
Best Bets for Captain/MVP slot:
I got this narrowed down to two Captain/MVP choices:
1) Phillip Lindsay RB
2) Denver D
For Lindsay, he’s got the speed where he can bounce outside, take advantage of some weaker Oakland DEs, and then make those outside LBs miss with a single move. Lindsay will probably get around 15-18 carries, and some receptions added. I expect some big plays and bunches of yards from him.
Denver D (Draft Kings Only):
For the Denver D, this will be a unit that will remind people of Fangio’s Chicago D, of last year. Tough vs. the run and able to adapt to the style of football each offense brings to the table.
They have the talent to shut down the Raiders and befuddle Carr. Chubb and Von Miller are on a quest to get 20 sacks, apiece (for the year), and if the Raiders do shut down one of those players, then the other will have a great night. It would take a pick-six or fumble for a TD to outscore Lindsay, but the sacks and a low score will make this unit one to have. Carr isn’t the best QB under pressure so the Broncos D can certainly rattle him into turnovers. **The Broncos D doesn’t have a lot of depth, but in Game 1, that will be minimized.
Longer Shots for Captain/MVP Slot:
Emmanuel Sanders has been playing like a man possessed, since returning from injury, and has something to prove. DaeSean Hamilton has been less than impressive this summer, so the Broncos could put Sanders in the slot, pushing Hamilton to the outside, which would pay off well for Sanders.
Flacco is one of the least trusted QBs in the fantasy football world. People have watched his decline, over the last few years, and he’s known for his lack of touchdown passes (compared to the top QBs in the NFL). Most people also think he’s “washed” or “over-the-hill,” making him a perfect contrary selection for Captain/MVP. He’ll most likely be low-owned, and if he can throw two TDs (maybe one to Lindsay and one to Sanders), then he’s going to have a shot at being the points leaders.
Flacco and Sanders had excellent chemistry during the preseason, and either would be a well-calculated addition if you roster the opposite player in the Captain/MVP slot.
I think the Raiders follow the standard Gruden script and try to pound the ball inside, where they can take advantage of some so-so inside linebacker matchups from the Broncos. The Raiders offense usually rolls from how established/successful the run is, and I think they will have some success with Jacobs, but not enough to do what they like to do. Like Lindsay, I think Jacobs will probably get around 15-18 carries, but unlike Lindsay, he’s going to be going mostly up the middle in a defense geared to shut him down. If the Raiders get near the goal line, then Jacobs can rack up a TD, or two. QBs and RBs are two of the most consistent positions for production, but I do think Jacobs will be higher owned, as people are willing to take a chance on his exciting upside.
The Broncos are still susceptible to the TEs, so I expect Darren Waller to get a handful of catches and some decent yardage. He was a brief star on the HBO series, “Hard Knocks,” which the Raiders were the team chosen, this year, where he flashed what he can do. He’s not as polished as Jared Cook (who went to New Orleans as a free agent in the offseason), but he has the athletic ability to be a formidable weapon for the Raiders, this year.
Because of Antonio Brown being released, Tyrell Williams is now the #1 WR for the Oakland Raiders. If the Raiders get behind, they’ll be throwing A LOT. Williams will be the best bet for those targets.
One ‘X’ factor is Hunter Renfro…guys like Renfro have haunted the Broncos for big plays/long TDs, in the past. He should be coming out of the slot for the Raiders and could be the guy that breaks a 50-60 yard reception for a TD.
Freeman will get rotated in regularly, and get mop-up/additional carries if this game gets out of hand. I see Vegas projections at ten carries for him. Could get a goal line TD, as well, as he’s more of a straight-forward runner than Lindsay. Freeman was a fantasy darling, during this summer, as his ADP kept moving up to the mid-round, as owners were hedging on Lindsay not staying healthy and/or the Broncos going RBBC. Could see a lot of people take a chance on him, as that hype has not worn off, yet.
Like Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr did not play a lot in the preseason, which means he also could start slow, ala Aaron Rodgers/Trubisky, vs. a top-flight defense like the Broncos. QBs are pretty consistent/an easy way to get points in single-game slates, but Carr has not been very successful vs. the Broncos, in the past. He had one total passing TD, in 2 games versus the Broncos, last year, and had a couple of no TD games, in the past few years vs. the Broncos.
***I’m a fan of Jalen Richard in games like this. Raiders seem to use him more in blowout games (where they have to catch up)—he sees an increase of targets and catches in those game. Could get 5-7 catches if things go south.
Don’t forget about the kickers: McManus (DEN) and Carlson (OAK), kickers also provide pretty steady points for their reduced (cheap) salary levels.
Joe Flacco has always been a QB that utilizes his TEs. Fant may be the known, rookie player, but Heuerman and Fumaagali are super cheap on Draft Kings, both liked by the Broncos, and if you only have a few hundred salary $, left to spend, you’d would only need a couple of reception to make that low investment/punt play, pay off.
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