Using Best Ball ADP Jumps To Determine Rookies Perceived Value, Based Upon Their Recent Average Draft Position Movement.
If you read my article on using Super Bowl odds to find rookie targets, you know I like to try different things to find a fantasy edge. So, as the 2019 NFL Draft ended on April 27th, I wrote down the ADP for offensive rookies in Best Ball drafts. These rankings represent where those players average draft position (ADP) had been, for rookies, since they were added as draftable players to Best Ball drafts. It is their ADP from early April thru April 27.
Then I compared them to their Best Ball ADP from April 27th to where it was a month later, on May 27th. All ADPs are rounded to the nearest #, and we are looking at ADP jumps, not current ADP–how many spots they’ve moved up.
Reminder: Best Ball leagues are about getting production for drafted players, THIS YEAR. Immediate, projected production boosts perceived value.We are shooting to expose the PERCEIVED value.
You can use and/or manipulate perceived value to determine trade value or draft value for specific players.
With that, let’s take a look.
Highest ADP Movers:
WR Parris Campbell [+84 ADP jump]: Parris Campbell is THE biggest movers over the last month for rookie players in Best Ball. The Colts and their high powered offense were one of the hottest teams in the 2nd half of the season, last year.
Andrew Luck (who most people have pegged as either the #1 QB or #2 QB, for 2019), seems to have returned to form, and we haven’t even gotten to Campbell’s speed…he ran a 4.31 40-yard dash, at the NFL combine.
Campbell landed in the perfect situation and seems to be trending at getting #2 WR spot, for the Colts.
Early impression from Colts OTA today: First-team offense working Parris Campbell into the mix. A hint of what we’ll see more of come training camp.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) May 29, 2019
WR N’Keal Harry [+66 ADP]: No Gronk, No Josh Gordon, and No Cordarrelle Patterson, that leaves over 100 receptions and over 170 targets up for grabs…enter rookie WR, N’Keal Harry.
A lot of touts had Harry as the #1 WR rookie prospect, and once he went to a Patriots team that is thirsty for offensive talent, it seemed like a natural marriage.
While the Patriots have also signed a slew of free agent WRs+TEs (Demaryius Thomas, Dontrelle Inman, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Benjamin Watson, etc.), they are incredibly high on N’Keal Harry.
Harry was the #3 rookie WR, according to the Best Ball ADP, right after the draft, he’s now the #1 rookie WR by ADP (first rookie WR being drafted in Best Ball leagues). N’Keal Harry is burning up the charts.
Patriots reportedly had N'Keal Harry graded much higher than pick No. 32 https://t.co/emGn3vBSlM
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) May 31, 2019
Tannenbaum also did a lot of draft prep this year, first with the Dolphins and then with ESPN, and compares N’Keal Harry to Anquan Boldin https://t.co/d5ca05qpDV
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) June 2, 2019
RB Darrell Henderson [+65 ADP jump]: Darrell Henderson is the direct beneficiary of the off-season uncertainty with Todd Gurley’s health (specifically the health of this knee). The LA Rams MOVED UP to draft Henderson in the 3rd round of the NFL draft, and with that pick (and C.J. Anderson moving on to another team) Henderson was instantly anointed as the most high profile RB handcuff to have. Like Parris Campbell, Henderson benefits from being on a high-powered offense. If Todd Gurley misses time, or if the Rams decide to lessen Gurley’s massive workload from last year (315 touches!), then Henderson is there to cash in. Other NFL RBs getting whose ADPs are around Henderson’s: Tevin Coleman, Latavius Murray, and Rashard Penny.
A note from Schefty: "Darrell Henderson, third round pick 70th overall, running back from Memphis, here's a guy that I believe Sean McVay thought was THE most dangerous offensive player in the draft…That's right. [The Rams] LOVE Darrell Henderson." https://t.co/2sZ9yvAn35
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) June 3, 2019
RB David Montgomery [+58 ADP jump]: With Jordan Howard traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, that left 250 carries up for grabs in the Chicago Bears running game. Howard’s YPC stats had declined over the past three years, and while Montgomery gives the Bears “fresh legs,” he also is a master of breaking tackles…something Howard also had declining #s on. In today’s NFL, the best way for RBs to get stats is to get a lot of touches, and thus a lot of yards. Montgomery is one of the few rookie RBs who has a clear shot at getting a bunch of carries, starting from Week 1.
That's a ridiculous amount of broken tackles by Bears RB David Montgomery over the past two seasons pic.twitter.com/MtphvLYBvh
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) May 11, 2019
Other Players Of Note With Big ADP Jumps:
WR Deebo Samuel [+46 ADP Jump], RB Justice Hill [+39 ADP Jump], RB Devin Singletary [+38 ADP Jump], WR Andy Isabella [+35 ADP Jump], and RB Josh Jacobs [+35 ADP Jump].
Biggest Rookie ADP Falls:
WR A.J. Brown [-53 ADP Fall]: A.J. Brown has an uphill battle to make it on the field, at least at the slot position. He could lineup opposite Corey Davis, but would still be in a tight spot for catches and targets, if he’s going up against NFL teams’ #2 CBs (as a rookie trying to learn the offense).
Sometimes, placement (where you’re drafted to) is as important as talent. A.J. Brown got a rough placement when he was drafted by the Titans, a team that was #29 in passing offense with 185.9 passing yards/game average, in 2018.
The Titans have an influx of talent at slot WR:
1⃣ Adam Humphries
2⃣ Delanie Walker
3⃣ Tajae Sharpe
4⃣ A.J. Brown
They can't all play there. That could be a good thing for the rookie WR from Ole Miss.
— The Athletic (@TheAthleticNSH) June 2, 2019
WR Hakeem Butler [-20 ADP]: Lots of competition for Hakeem Butler as future HOFer, Larry Fitzgerald, is returning for another season, along with Christian Kirk, and fellow rookie Andy Isabella (who has the 8th biggest ADP jump, so far, with +35). Like A.J. Brown, Butler did not land in an ideal situation, at least for the 2019 season.
Interesting Note: Noah Fant has had the biggest ADP Jump of the rookie TEs with a +22 ADP jump. While T.J. Hockenson was the highest rated TE talent, in the draft, Fant landed in a good situation in Denver. Joe Flacco is a QB that is reliant on his TEs, and he has an offensive coordinator that was schooled in the same system that made George Kittle a star.
Take a look at the rookies that have ADPs that are trending upwards, or downwards, and use that as a guide for your drafts and offseason trades. These are the rookie players that are garnering the most interest in fantasy football.
Perception is reality. Use that to your advantage and get the best players or deals possible, for your fantasy teams.
For all those that are interested, the full rookie ADP jump table I used is below.