Rookies Perceived Value based on Best Ball ADP Jumps

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Using Best Ball ADP Jumps To Determine Rookies Perceived Value, Based Upon Their Recent Average Draft Position Movement.

If you read my article on using Super Bowl odds to find rookie targets,  you know I like to try different things to find a fantasy edge. So, as the 2019 NFL Draft ended on April 27th, I wrote down the ADP for offensive rookies in Best Ball drafts. These rankings represent where those players average draft position (ADP) had been, for rookies, since they were added as draftable players to Best Ball drafts. It is their ADP from early April thru April 27.

Then I compared them to their Best Ball ADP from April 27th to where it was a month later, on May 27th. All ADPs are rounded to the nearest #, and we are looking at ADP jumps, not current ADP–how many spots they’ve moved up.

Reminder: Best Ball leagues are about getting production for drafted players, THIS YEAR.  Immediate, projected production boosts perceived value.We are shooting to expose the PERCEIVED value.

You can use and/or manipulate perceived value to determine trade value or draft value for specific players.

With that, let’s take a look.

Highest ADP Movers:

WR Parris Campbell [+84 ADP jump]:  Parris Campbell is THE biggest movers over the last month for rookie players in Best Ball. The Colts and their high powered offense were one of the hottest teams in the 2nd half of the season, last year.

Andrew Luck (who most people have pegged as either the #1 QB or #2 QB, for 2019), seems to have returned to form, and we haven’t even gotten to Campbell’s speed…he ran a 4.31 40-yard dash, at the NFL combine.

Campbell landed in the perfect situation and seems to be trending at getting #2 WR spot, for the Colts.

WR N’Keal Harry [+66 ADP]:  No Gronk, No Josh Gordon, and No Cordarrelle Patterson, that leaves over 100 receptions and over 170 targets up for grabs…enter rookie WR, N’Keal Harry.

A lot of touts had Harry as the #1 WR rookie prospect, and once he went to a Patriots team that is thirsty for offensive talent, it seemed like a natural marriage.

While the Patriots have also signed a slew of free agent WRs+TEs (Demaryius Thomas, Dontrelle Inman, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Benjamin Watson, etc.), they are incredibly high on N’Keal Harry.

Harry was the #3 rookie WR, according to the Best Ball ADP, right after the draft, he’s now the #1 rookie WR by ADP (first rookie WR being drafted in Best Ball leagues). N’Keal Harry is burning up the charts.

Further Movers:

RB Darrell Henderson [+65 ADP jump]: Darrell Henderson is the direct beneficiary of the off-season uncertainty with Todd Gurley’s health (specifically the health of this knee).  The LA Rams MOVED UP to draft Henderson in the 3rd round of the NFL draft, and with that pick (and C.J. Anderson moving on to another team) Henderson was instantly anointed as the most high profile RB handcuff to have.  Like Parris Campbell, Henderson benefits from being on a high-powered offense.  If Todd Gurley misses time, or if the Rams decide to lessen Gurley’s massive workload from last year (315 touches!), then Henderson is there to cash in. Other NFL RBs getting whose ADPs are around Henderson’s:  Tevin Coleman, Latavius Murray, and Rashard Penny.

RB David Montgomery [+58 ADP jump]: With Jordan Howard traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, that left 250 carries up for grabs in the Chicago Bears running game. Howard’s YPC stats had declined over the past three years, and while Montgomery gives the Bears “fresh legs,” he also is a master of breaking tackles…something Howard also had declining #s on.  In today’s NFL, the best way for RBs to get stats is to get a lot of touches, and thus a lot of yards. Montgomery is one of the few rookie RBs who has a clear shot at getting a bunch of carries, starting from Week 1.

Other Players Of Note With Big ADP Jumps:

WR Deebo Samuel [+46 ADP Jump], RB Justice Hill [+39 ADP Jump], RB Devin Singletary [+38 ADP Jump], WR Andy Isabella  [+35 ADP Jump], and RB Josh Jacobs [+35 ADP Jump].

Biggest Rookie ADP Falls:

WR A.J. Brown [-53 ADP Fall]: A.J. Brown has an uphill battle to make it on the field, at least at the slot position.  He could lineup opposite Corey Davis, but would still be in a tight spot for catches and targets, if he’s going up against NFL teams’ #2 CBs (as a rookie trying to learn the offense).

Sometimes, placement (where you’re drafted to) is as important as talent.  A.J. Brown got a rough placement when he was drafted by the Titans, a team that was #29 in passing offense with 185.9 passing yards/game average, in 2018.

WR Hakeem Butler [-20 ADP]: Lots of competition for Hakeem Butler as future HOFer, Larry Fitzgerald, is returning for another season, along with Christian Kirk, and fellow rookie Andy Isabella (who has the 8th biggest ADP jump, so far, with +35). Like A.J. Brown, Butler did not land in an ideal situation, at least for the 2019 season.

Interesting Note:  Noah Fant has had the biggest ADP Jump of the rookie TEs with a +22 ADP jump.  While T.J. Hockenson was the highest rated TE talent, in the draft, Fant landed in a good situation in Denver.  Joe Flacco is a QB that is reliant on his TEs, and he has an offensive coordinator that was schooled in the same system that made George Kittle a star.

Final Analysis:

Take a look at the rookies that have ADPs that are trending upwards, or downwards, and use that as a guide for your drafts and offseason trades. These are the rookie players that are garnering the most interest in fantasy football.

Perception is reality.  Use that to your advantage and get the best players or deals possible, for your fantasy teams.

For all those that are interested, the full rookie ADP jump table I used is below.

Best Ball ADP Jumps:

April 27th                                                    May 27th                                       Net ADP +/-

Josh Jacobs=57 ADP                                 Josh Jacobs=33 ADP                     +35 ADP
Miles Sanders=104 ADP                             Miles Sanders=61 ADP                  +43 ADP
David Montgomery =108 ADP                   David Montgomery=49 ADP          +58 ADP
Dk Metcalf =119 ADP                                 DK Metalf= 101 ADP                      +18 ADP
T.J. Hockenson =122 ADP                         T.J. Hockenson=120 ADP              +2 ADP
Kyler Murray=128 ADP                              Kyler Murray=102  ADP                 +26 ADP
Darrell Henderson=145 ADP                     Darrell Henderson=79 ADP           +65 ADP
AJ Brown = 147 ADP                                 AJ Brown= 200 ADP                       -53 ADP
Nkeal Harry=159 ADP                               NKeal Harry=93 ADP                     +66 ADP
Noah Fant =159 ADP                                Noah Fant=137 ADP                       +22 ADP
Marquise Brown=167 ADP                       Marquise Brown=162 ADP              +5 ADP
Damien Harris=176 ADP                          Damien Harris=162 ADP                  +14 ADP
Hakeem Butler=186 ADP                         Hakeem Butler=206 ADP                 -20 ADP
Devin Singletary=203 ADP                       Devin Singletary=165 ADP              +38 ADP
Dwayne Haskins=209 ADP                      Dwayne Haskins= 207 ADP             +2 ADP
Parris Campbell=209 ADP                       Parris Campbell=125 ADP               +84 ADP
Irv Smith=210 ADP                                    Irv Smith=199 ADP                         +11 ADP
Justice Hill=211 ADP                                 Justice Hill=172 ADP                      +39 ADP
Bryce Love=221 ADP                                 Bryce Love= 213 ADP                    +8 ADP
Deebo Samuel=213 ADP                           Deebo Samuel=167 ADP                +46 ADP
Rodney Anderson=213 ADP                    Rodney Anderson=217 ADP            -4 ADP
Andy Isabella=214 ADP                           Andy Isabella=179 ADP                    +35 ADP
Trayveon Williams=214 ADP                  Trayveon Williams=216 ADP             -2 ADP
Karan Higdon=215 ADP                           Karan Higdon=217 ADP                   -2 ADP
Miles Boykin=215 ADP                            Miles Boykin=217 ADP                       -2 ADP
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside=216 ADP            J.J Arcega-Whiteside=216 ADP          0 ADP
Qadree Ollison=216 ADP                        Qadree Ollison=217 ADP                   -1 ADP
Jace Sternberger=216 ADP                    Jace Sternberger=215 ADP               +1 ADP

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