Derrius Guice: Early Trend Leader for Dynasty RB Breakout

Derrius Guice: Early Trend Leader for Dynasty RB Breakout

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Using Twitter to zero in on the current dynasty value of the Redskins RB, Derrius Guice.  What’s his current, perceived value?


Is the price for Guice, right? Once upon a time, the fantasy football season started when all the fantasy football magazines came out at your local grocery store (mostly near the end of July, nearly six months after the Super Bowl).  You’d have a few precious weeks to flip through the pages of the fantasy ‘rags’ and ponder who would be the next year’s stud players, sleepers, or busts…mostly while watching reruns of the latest season of Seinfeld, while eating Hot Pockets, and drinking Crystal Pepsi (*Millenials:  Seinfeld was a famous comedian who had his own hit TV show in the 90s).

These days, there is no offseason in fantasy football;  the fantasy football information train begins right after the Super Bowl ends, and the bits of scouting you pick-up, see trending, or discover, can make or break your fantasy football season.

Dynasty fantasy football owners, especially, are always on the lookout for the next “pot of gold” sleeper player. Getting in early, on trending sleepers, can mean cashing in a player’s upside potential, without giving up on one of your treasured core players and without giving up too high of a draft pick. Early social media trends, just a couple weeks after the 2018 season ended, have me zeroing in what looks an up-and-coming, breakout RB in Derrius Guice; and by the looks of the info coming out, his value is getting pumped way up, early.

Why is Derrius Guice trending:

A star RB at LSU, and a Redskins 2nd round pick, a year ago, in the NFL draft (and early comparisons to Ezekial Elliot), Guice was expected to step into the Redskins starting RB slot and be one of the 2018 fantasy RB, rookie darlings. Yet an ACL injury in the preseason cost Guice his rookie season and dynasty owners were left holding the bag. But, with the success of Adrian Peterson, and former Redskins RBs in general, fantasy football owners are excited for Guice to see what kind of damage he can do on the gridiron.

The Madden folks are calling their shot, getting in on the early Guice hype, which is always a good sign as the Madden games always seem to be ahead of the curve (just as long as he’s not on the cover):

Even TMZ is beating-the-drum for Guice.

Current dynasty perceived value:

So know that we’ve seen some trending hype, let’s dive a bit deeper to get a sense of value. We’ll be looking at a bunch of tweets, mostly to gauge perceived value from fantasy owners and fantasy experts.  First, is an interesting “dynasty package trade” Twitter poll

What you’ll start to see, as you begin collecting info/opinions on Guice are trending, straight-up comparisons to Sony Michel (931 rushing yards and 6 TDs in 2018). In that next tweet, you see that Hill/Bell and Michel/Guice are the balanced, equal portions of the trade proposal as Aaron Jones>AROB and 1st rd>4th rd are the deciding trade-off factors. The Guice side triumphs.

Here’s a tweet from last Sept…nearly one month after Guice’s season-ending injury, and just after Freeman’s injury in the season opener for the Falcons :

Here’s a fascinating one: Christian McCaffrey (CMC) had a massive season in 2018, pretty much almost any fantasy team that had him on their roster went to the playoffs.  Add to that, superstars are very hard to come by, yet the Michel/Guice side wins in a landslide.  Two up-and-coming RBs, taking down the fantasy monster that is CMC.

Here we see straight-up comparisons with Guice beating two RBs that had pretty good first seasons :

Final analysis:

So you’re starting to see that trend I was talking about: Guice vs. Michel with Guice>Michel being the most common outcome.  So what does that equate to for this coming season?  Michel was a top 25 RB, in standard scoring leagues last year, and top 40 in PPR leagues.  That’s pretty good value for Guice, already, as Michel is as one of the best, breakout rookie RBs of 2018.  A 1000 yd rushing season with multiple TDs is a perceived likely outcome for Derrius Guice.  Not too shabby for a guy who hasn’t had a single, regular season carry and is coming off an ACL injury.

In redraft leagues and best ball leagues, I’m seeing Guice go in the bottom of the 4th or 5th rounds, on average (in PPR leagues)–so that’ll give a rough estimate of what it might take as a basic floor/low-ball offer to get him, if you like to go the haggling route (or his floor value in startup dynasty leagues).

In reality, Guice’s dynasty value is pumped up much higher, because (of course) owners already have players kept from the previous year (usually at least one RB, and sometimes up to three), meaning there is scarcity at the RB position already, before the draft for the new season.  He’s looking like one of the top RBs to target as Dynasty mock drafts having him going, so far, in the mid-1st to the early 2nd round as the “secret” is out on his sleeper talent.

As the off-season hype continues, and we get closer and closer to the start of the new NFL season, Guice’s value will go up, and it’ll get harder and harder to trade for him. If you’re thinking about trading for him/buying him, start those conversations now. Get him while the getting is good and the price is the lowest it’ll probably be.  Note: **Keep in mind he’s a player coming off an ACL injury.  We don’t know who his starting QB will be, or if there will be a star receiver to keep opposing defenses honest/from not stacking the box against him–Buyer beware: high risk/high reward].

If you’re already a Guice owner, and you’re thinking about selling him, start tracking those trade polls via Twitter.  See what value people are getting for him, or voting for him, and ask for slightly higher when the time comes. Monitor his rehab status; each positive recovery story is another uptick in his value.  You already have that “pot of gold,” now you gotta decide if you’re going to cash-in or ride that rainbow to fantasy glory.

Perception is reality.  Use that to your advantage.

Follow me and hit me up on twitter @Flavorizethis. We can talk fantasy football: redraft, best ball, and dynasty leagues, as well as DFS fantasy football and DFS Golf.