Using Super Bowl Odds To Find Rookies That Vegas Implies You Should Draft
I’m always looking at new ways to attack fantasy football; this year, one of the things I’m doing is looking at NFL teams’ Super Bowl odds, both pre and post draft, to see if there’s an edge to exploit. Basically I’m looking for a rookie “diamond-in-the-rough.” Dynasty rookie targets that the Twitterverse might undervalue or be ignoring, but that Vegas is nudging us to take a look at.
We’ll be looking at teams whose Super Bowl odds have improved. An example of this is a team with SB odds that are 10-1 pre-draft, to win the Super Bowl, increasing to 8-1, post-NFL draft.
From the teams that show odds improvement, we’ll be picking a player to target for fantasy dynasty ownership.
For consistency, I’ll be using the same unnamed, online betting site for both the pre/post odds.
It’s a different take on finding rookie standouts, so let’s dig-in and see what we see.
Oakland Raiders: 66-1 to 60-1.
RB Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs, this name should be no surprise for anyone paying attention in fantasy football. In the offseason, the Raiders went from Doug Martin to Isaiah Crowell, to drafting Josh Jacobs at #24 overall (and then adding Doug Martin BACK to the roster, after Crowell was lost for the 2019 season, due to an achilles tear). He’s the #1 rated RB, coming out of college, on a team that desperately needed an RB upgrade. He’s going to get a lot of carries, and thus a lot of opportunities for potential points.
Josh Jacobs is a total no-brainer, as a player to go and get (BTW, he’s already going top 40 in redraft leagues). He’s a top 3 overall player in rookie dyansty drafts.
— Raider Posts (@RaiderPosts) May 3, 2019
NY Giants: 75-1 to 70-1
QB Daniel Jones
While the Josh Jacobs pick was celebrated by Raiders fans, the Daniel Jones pick at #6, by the Giants, was harshly criticized. The best way I can describe the NY Giants picking Daniel Jones at #6 is to compare it to someone going shopping for a new car, and then paying $5,000 over sticker price with additional dealer add-ons because they loved the test drive, and so REALLY wanted the car.
The Giants fell in love, and they overpaid. It doesn’t mean they got a terrible product.
The people that like him, REALLY like him (check out the tweets below).
Here’s the deal, everyone is slamming Daniel Jones. If your rookie draft is coming up soon, you’re going to get a deep discount on him because his perceived value is so low. If he bombs you’ve paid only a bit, but if he hits, you’ve got yourself a golden ticket to the fantasy glory, chocolate factory.
It’s a low risk, high reward play and one that seems blessed by the folks in Vegas.
Daniel Jones is a 3rd-4th round pick in rookie drafts.
📺: Path to the Draft pic.twitter.com/sPxyk2jRI1
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) May 4, 2019
— Matt Lombardo (@MattLombardoNFL) May 4, 2019
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) May 1, 2019
Detroit Lions: 90-1 to 80-1
TE T.J. Hockenson
The Detroit Lions’ Super Bowl odds jumped quite a bit, post-draft, and T.J. Hockenson looks to be a big reason why. He’s a premium TE, on a team with a premium QB, and he can both catch and block (meaning he has a chance to be on the field, for every play, which gives him more opportunities for targets).
He was also drafted #8 overall. Being drafted that high, he’s going to be a focal point of that offense.
The NFL is all about attacking the middle of the defense. Every time you turn on the TV, you hear coaches talking about attacking the middle of the field, and trying to expose/carve up the soft underbelly of their opponents. The teams that do that successfully win. Period.
T.J. Hockenson is the butcher that the Lions will use to do that carving, against the other teams. Hockenson is also the baker AND the candlestick maker. He’s that elite TE that every fantasy owners dreams about having on their roster.
Need more selling?
Check out this excellent article, about Hockenson, by our own Sean Lanigan:https://www.dynastyfootballdigest.com/nfl-draft/tj-hockenson-dynasty-fantasy-football-rookie-draft-tight-end/
Need more selling?
Check out this stellar twitter thread, on T.J. Hockenson, by @ffbigcat.
Why TJ Hockenson will be a top 7 TE in his career, and possibly as soon as 2019. A THREAD pic.twitter.com/4e7HuiBHga
— Fantasy Football Big Cat (@ffbigcat) May 1, 2019
— Cameron Grant (@coolcam101) July 17, 2018
I threw that last tweet in there, just to see if you’re paying attention. But, a quick, brief warning: the previous two TEs that were drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft, Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis, COMBINED had 25 receptions between them for their rookie seasons. Sometimes, rookie TEs can start slow.
T.J. Hockenson is going top 10 overall, in rookie drafts.
Cincinnati Bengals 150-1 to 125-1
RB Trayveon Williams
We see another big jump in Vegas Super Bowl odds with the Bengals. They did a terrific job upgrading their O-line, with Jonah Williams, while also having the highest rated draft of any AFC North team. They also got a sixth-round steal with Trayveon Williams.
Trayveon Williams has both speed and elusiveness. He’ll be behind Joe Mixon on the depth chart, but you could be looking at the next Tarik Cohen or Philip Lindsey if given the opportunity. I mean, what are the chances that Joe Mixon gets hurt during the year? Guys like Trayveon Williams find a way to stick to rosters and become valuable, especially in PPR scoring leagues. Because he was drafted in the sixth round, he’s going to be a guy that owners let slide by them in rookie drafts. Don’t let him slide by you.
He’s a top 10 RB in rookie drafts and someone you should be targeting in the first few rounds of your rookie draft.
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) April 27, 2019
Trayveon Williams had much bigger things than football on his mind as he waited for his family to be rescued from flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey.
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) April 27, 2019
Washington Redskins 150-1 to 100-1:
QB Dwayne Haskins
Moving up from 150-1 to 100-1, in the biggest leap of any NFL team pre/post draft odds, is the Washington Redskins.
NFL teams need a premium quarterback if they’re going to win in the NFL and before the NFL Draft, the Washington Redskins had the following QBs: an injured Alex Smith (who will probably miss the entire season), an injured Colt McCoy, and Case Keenum who went bust last year, in Denver.
Haskins will be given every opportunity to win the starting job, with the Redskins, as many people saw him as the top rated QB in the 2019 draft.
If there’s one QB, out of this class, that looks the most likely to succeed; it’s Dwayne Haskins. Remember, the 2017 NFL draft also had an uncelebrated 1st round QB trio in Trubisky, Mahomes, and Watson but all three QBs have gone on to NFL and fantasy glory.
Even Joe Theismann likes Haskins, as he’s given him permission to wear his holy #7.
Haskins is probably a top 5 player, in rookie Superflex league drafts and a top 10 overall player in rookie dynasty drafts.
Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins has declared for the 2019 NFL draft. He's projected as the top QB in the class.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 7, 2019
This take on Dwayne Haskins is Powerful pic.twitter.com/lpkH6cYwbA
— Redskins Realm (@SkinsRealm) May 1, 2019
A new No. 7 for the Redskins.
Legendary QB Joe Theismann has given Redskins' rookie Dwayne Haskins his blessing to wear No. 7 pic.twitter.com/TRIaxTUedd
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) May 1, 2019
Follow me and hit me up on twitter @Flavorizethis. We can talk fantasy football: redraft, best ball, and dynasty leagues, as well as DFS fantasy football. You can read more of my articles here: https://www.dynastyfootballdigest.com/author/sperkins/